Trend Analysis of Migration Data in Thailand 2019-2023

TREND ANALYSIS OF MIGRATION DATA IN THAILAND 2019-2023 6 SECTION 2: METHODOLOGY DATA SOURCE The LFS is a household-based, sample survey conducted by the Thailand’s NSO every quarter. It produces official national statistics on the labour force, employment, and unemployment for monitoring and planning purposes. The Migration Module is not a permanent component of the LFS questionnaire, as it is implemented in the fourth quarter (from October to December) of each calendar year. The NSO first conducted a population migration survey in 1974, focusing solely on migration into Bangkok. In 1983 and 1990, the scope was expanded to include migration into the provinces surrounding Bangkok's metropolitan area and certain provinces in regional areas designated as key cities for development. Since 1992, the survey's coverage has been extended nationwide. This report presents the findings for the period 2019-2023. It includes both Thai nationals and non-Thai nationals based on nationality. The methodology for the NSO's LFS uses a stratified two-stage sampling method, designed to ensure national representativeness across municipal and non-municipal areas. While the LFS targets only individuals aged 15 years old and above, the NSO's Migration Module surveys all household members regardless of age. The total number of sampled households varied slightly by year but remained consistent in scope with 83,880 households interviewed in 2019 and 2020, and 86,880 households in 2021, 2022, and 2023. APPROACH The collaboration between NSO and IOM to produce this report followed a systematic approach that involved several steps. Initially, IOM began by replicating NSO’s Migration Module data through a trend analysis focusing on key indicators. This foundational step allowed for a detailed examination of migration patterns over time. Then, NSO conducted an additional analysis to replicate IOM’s findings, ensuring the robustness of the data interpretation. This phase fostered constructive discussions between IOM and NSO, allowing both organizations to reach a consensus on the analytical approach and key insights derived from the data.1 Lastly, the report was developed, with IOM taking the lead on writing and data visualization. This report introduces the concept of lifetime migrants alongside recent internal and recent international migrants. Lifetime migrants refer to individuals who have moved from their place of birth at any time during their lifetime, offering a useful measure for understanding migration patterns. It is valuable for studying the long-term effects of migration on demographic, social, and economic aspects of regions. Information on the place of birth (or hometown in this report) of the native population is typically used for investigating internal migration, making lifetime migration data relevant for such studies. This measure treats all people who have migrated from outside their province of usual residence as migrants, regardless of when they moved. While it provides a broad view of migration, it does not offer detailed insights on the timing or frequency of movements. LIMITATIONS While the data used in this report provides valuable insights into migration trends in Thailand, there are several limitations to consider: • Underrepresentation of migrant populations: One key limitation is the underrepresentation of certain migrant groups who may not be adequately captured in the LFS Migration Module. This may include migrants engaging in short-term or seasonal migration, as well as those who move across borders temporarily but do not fit into standard categories of migration. As the LFS Migration Module is conducted yearly and relies on household- based data, some individuals who are frequently on the move, or those living in non-traditional housing arrangements, might not be fully represented. The survey also does not capture migrants living at worksites, such as those in fishing, construction, and manufacturing, resulting in an under-reporting of migrant numbers. • Scope of the Migration Module: The Migration Module, while a valuable tool for tracking migration trends, is implemented only in the fourth quarter of each year. This means it captures migration patterns within a specific period and may not reflect seasonal or year-round fluctuations in migration movements, which could influence the findings. • Sampling and data collection constraints: While the survey methodology is designed to be representative, it may still miss certain populations, especially those in remote or rural areas who may have limited access to the survey process. • Limitations of self-reporting: The reliance on household surveys and self-reporting can introduce biases, as respondents may underreport or misreport certain aspects of their migration history or intentions. This is particularly relevant for sensitive topics such as irregular migration patterns. • Data analysis: Averages are occassionally used to summarize trends from 2019 to 2023; however, they should be viewed as indicative, as the COVID-19 pandemic significantly disrupted many patterns during this period. In addition, as analysis is conducted on migration within the past one year, findings do not represent the full migrant population in Thailand. 1 IOM and NSO’s advanced trend analysis and capacity building using migration data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) Migration Module in Thailand can be accessed here: https://migrationnetwork.un.org/practice/iom-and-nsos-advanced-trend-analysis-and-capacity-building-using-migration-data-labour .